Our look at the AFC Non Factors continues with the East, for so long the personal property of the New England Patriots. With the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins for company, there are plenty of viable fantasy options in this division, but I’m here to offer you four names that you really should steer clear of.
(Note – Average Draft Position Data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com)
BUFFALO BILLS – Robert Woods WR
In his three seasons with the Bills since leaving USC, Woods has been a steady but unspectacular presence on the roster. Boasting a career yards per reception mark of 12.1, he has averaged less than four catches and 42 yards a game in his pro career. He is the second receiver on the team behind Sammy Watkins, but in Greg Roman’s last five seasons as an offensive coordinator the WR2 on his squads have seen on average less than 15% of the teams total market share. By contrast, the WR1 has enjoyed 27% of the total targets. Woods is currently the 87th wide receiver off the boards, and this spot is justified. Leave him be.
NEW YORK JETS – Jace Amaro TE
In much the same way that the second wide receiver in Buffalo is ignored, so too is the tight end in Chan Gailey’s offenses. Between 2010-2012 in Buffalo, and last season with the Jets, Gailey’s offenses have targeted the teams main tight end on just seven % of all passes. This would be a pitiful share for a RB2. Amaro has not exactly done much to force Gailey’s hand of course, missing all of the 2015 season. His below par skills as a blocker do not demand his inclusion in the offense, and while he will almost certainly top the total receptions of all Jets tight ends from last season (EIGHT), he does not figure to much more than a risky dart throw. He is going undrafted in fantasy drafts at the moment.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – Malcolm Mitchell WR
With Brandon LaFell out of the door, the wide receiver spot across from Julian Edelman on the Patriots would appear to be up for grabs. While I will make no efforts to stop you from drafting Chris Hogan or Danny Amendola (because you shouldn’t need telling not to), I must caution you against believing a rookie breakout is coming from Mitchell. He may well be impressing the Patriots early in camp, but the volatile match up based approach the Patriots adopt towards their offensive game plan makes drafting anyone outside of Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis risky. No rookie wide receiver has caught more than 43 passes in their first season since Bill Belichick became head coach of the Patriots, and I’m not expecting Mitchell to become the first.
MIAMI DOLPHINS – Jay Ajayi RB
After failing to land a stud in the draft, seeing C.J. Anderson remain on the Broncos roster and being spurned in favour of the Cardinals by Chris Johnson, the Dolphins appeared set to finally give Jay Ajayi the shot some thought he warranted. This all went to rat crap as soon as the team signed Arian Foster. Owing no allegiance to Ajayi, Adam Gase and his staff have been effusive in their praise of the skills of Foster, even after he averaged a mere 2.6 yards per carry last season. There have been concerns about Ajayi’s skills as a receiver, despite him catching 50 passes in his last year at Boise State, and more significantly his health. Its just not likely that he’ll be able to break through all this and become a stud in Gase’s running back friendly offense. He’s the RB28 in drafts at the moment, being drafted at high end RB3 pricing. That is too rich for my blood.
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